1.5.1 虚拟经济
1.5.1 Virtual Economy
在描述虚拟经济的各个方面之前,让我先引入计算机系统中存在的一个类似概念。类比有助于理解这一问题的范围与重要性。
Before describing the aspects of the virtual economy, let me draw a parallel concept which exists in computer systems. Analogy helps understand the scope and the significance of the problem.
在计算机系统的早期,存储设备非常昂贵,容量也相对较小。例如,1兆字节的内存(RAM)成本超过10,000美元!要构建一个拥有比如100兆字节内存的计算机系统几乎是不可能的(内存成本将超过100万美元)。计算机系统的聪明架构师们因此发明了虚拟内存的概念。其思路是营造一种内存在虚拟上很大(比如100吉字节)的假象。这种假象之所以能够实现,是靠利用相对廉价且容量巨大的硬盘空间所提供的存储。
In the earlier days of computer systems, memory devices were very expensive and their sizes were relatively small. For example, 1 megabyte of memory (RAM) cost more than $10,000! It was almost impossible to build a computer system with say 100 megabytes (memory would cost more than $1 million). The smart architects of computer systems invented the notion of virtual memory. The idea was to create the illusion that the memory was virtually large (say 100 gigabytes). The illusion is made possible by using the relatively inexpensive and large storage provided by hard disk space.
虚拟内存的概念基于这样一个假设:用户程序并不需要始终驻留在主存(昂贵的真实内存)之中。程序的一小部分驻留在主存中,而程序的其余部分及其数据则保存在廉价但容量很大的磁盘空间上。随着时间推移,程序的各个部分和数据会在内存与磁盘之间来回交换。用户永远不会察觉内存其实小到无法容纳她的程序。对用户而言,内存具有虚拟上的巨大容量。她很满意,能够用小得多的真实内存运行更大的程序;这是一种幻觉,但是是一种美好的幻觉。当然,一旦某个贪婪的程序开始使用超过系统实际拥有的真实内存时,计算机系统就可能崩溃。计算机体系结构领域将这种现象称为抖动(thrashing),架构师们对此了然于心,并提出了多种应对或彻底防止它的方法。那么,经济体系中的类比在哪里呢?
The concept of virtual memory works under the assumption that user programs do not need to reside in the main (expensive) real memory all the time. A small portion of the program will reside in main memory, while the rest of the program and its data reside on the cheap but large disk space. Over time, pieces of the program and data will be swapped back and forth between the memory and the disk. The user will never know that the memory is too small to hold her program. For the user, the memory has a virtually large size. She is happy and can execute larger programs using much smaller real memory; it is an illusion, but a nice one. Of course the computer system may crash when a greedy program begins to use more real memory than the system actually has. This concept is known for computer architects as thrashing and they are well aware of it and have come up with different ways to cope with it or prevent it altogether. Now, where is the analogy in the economic system?
最简单的金融经济类比来理解虚拟内存概念的,是信用卡系统。以一个月收入为3000美元的家庭为例。这个家庭每月支付2500美元作为债务余额的最低还款额,而该债务余额可能高达36万美元,其中包括房贷、两辆汽车的贷款以及节日购物的花费。该家庭的实际真实财富为每年3.6万美元(在计算机类比中相当于36兆字节);这十年累计达到36万美元(类似于360兆字节的虚拟存储)。该家庭并不使用每年3.6万美元的真实财富,而是使用十年的扩展(虚拟)财富,即36万美元。实际上,在该家庭开始使用这笔巨额虚拟资金时,这36万美元并不存在。
The simplest financial economic analogy to the virtual memory concept is the credit card system. Take the example of a family with a monthly income of $3,000. The family pays $2,500 as a minimum payment on their debt balance, which could be $360,000 including the payments on a house, two cars, and holiday shopping. The actual real wealth of the family is $36,000 a year (36 megabytes in computer analogy); this amounts to $360,000 over ten years (similar to 360 megabytes of virtual storage). Instead of using the real wealth of $36,000 a year, the family uses the extended (virtual) wealth of ten years ($360,000). In reality, the $360,000 does not exist at the time when the family begins to use this large virtual money.
由美联储支持的银行介入,并预先拨出一大笔资金,指望这笔钱随时间推移真正被赚回来。如果一切顺利,这个家庭每月继续赚取3,000美元,并继续支付最低还款额;那么一切都会平稳运行,虚拟财富与真实财富之间的差距也不会浮出水面、引发任何问题。这个家庭会继续快乐地生活在价值36万美元的虚幻财富之中。
The bank supported by the Federal Reserve steps in and allocates the large amount of money in anticipation that this money will actually be generated over time. If all goes well, the family continues to earn $3,000 a month and continues to pay their minimum payments; then everything goes smooth and the difference between what is virtual and what is real will not surface to cause any problem. The family continues to happily live with the illusion of $360,000 virtual wealth.
但是,一旦出现问题,比如家庭中的工作成员被裁员(这种情况并不少见),或者出现严重的健康状况,其花费超过保险公司所支付的金额,从而产生更多的医疗债务,又或者出于其他原因,那么“抖动”(thrashing)就会发生。家庭的虚拟容量随之消失,通过虚拟内存获得的资产也可能随之消失。事实上,家庭虚拟财富的崩溃还可能影响家庭的绝对真实财富,比如通过继承所拥有的土地!这类情形时常发生,我们都知道许多现实中的例子。媒体报道过的一个突出例子是亿万富翁唐纳德·特朗普。他习惯于经营动辄数十亿美元规模的项目,而当他无法满足债权人的要求时,便申请了破产。135
But when something goes wrong, such as a layoff of the working member of the family, which is not uncommon, or a serious health condition occurs and consumes more money than what the insurance company pays resulting on more healthcare debt, or any other reason, then thrashing will take place. The virtual capacity of the family evaporates, and the assets acquired with virtual memory may also vanish. In fact, the collapse of the virtual wealth of the family may affect the absolute real wealth of the family, such as a land owned through inheritance! This type of scenario occurs all the time, and we all know many real-life examples. One outstanding example, which was reported in the media, is the case of the billionaire Donald Trump. He is used to running projects sizing in billions of dollars, and when he fails to meet the demands of the creditors, he files for bankruptcy135.
图22显示了虚拟财富(与债务成正比)的增长,而实际财富(与收入成正比)在十三年多的时间里几乎保持不变。请注意,与住房相关的债务从每个家庭12万美元增加到18.3万美元,而同一时期的相应收入保持不变。
Figure 22 shows the growth of the virtual wealth (proportional to the debt), while the real wealth (proportional to income) remained almost steady for more than thirteen years. Note how the home-related debt has increased from $120,000 to $183,000 per family while the corresponding income remained unchanged over the same period.
在经济的更大层面上,企业、工厂以及各类企业相互往来、运作的地方,虚拟财富的概念与上述例子类似,只是规模大得多。多年来,资本主义之下的虚拟经济已成为经济中最占主导地位的部分,几乎完全掩盖了实体经济。事实上,虚拟经济已变得如此突出,以至于政治领导层警告人们,经济有可能从虚拟价值跌回其更为实在的价值。
At the larger scale of the economy, where corporations, factories, and all types of enterprises interact and function, the concept of virtual wealth is similar to the examples above but much larger in scale. Over the years, the virtual economy under capitalism became the most dominant part of the economy which has almost totally masked the real economy. In fact, the virtual economy has become so prominent that the political leadership warns against the possibility of pushing the economy down from the virtual values to its more real values.
2008年4月3日,美联储主席伯南克在向国会委员会所作的一份陈述中表示99,
In a statement made to a congressional committee on April 3, 2008, the Fed Reserve chief Bernanke said99,
如果允许贝尔斯登倒闭,将导致个人和其他金融机构所持有的贝尔斯登投资陷入混乱的清算。而且,违约的不利影响不会局限于金融体系,还会通过对资产价值和信贷可得性的影响,广泛波及实体经济。
If Bear Stearns had been allowed to fail, it would have led to a chaotic unwinding of Bear Stearns investments held by individuals and other financial institutions. Moreover, the adverse impact of a default would not have been confined to the financial system but would have been felt broadly in the real economy through its effects on asset values and credit availability.
请注意伯南克如何暗示,保护实体经济正是其出手救助贝尔斯登、防止其倒闭的理由。
Note how Bernanke alludes to the protection of the real economy as the objective cited for protecting Bear Stearns from failing.

在《新闻周刊》2008年10月11日发表的一篇文章中,丹尼尔·格罗斯写道:“回到2002年,苹果公司的股价远低于其账面现金水平,等于给其品牌和产品赋值为零,而在繁荣高峰期,这一价值曾达数十亿美元。”请注意,这段陈述提到了对经济的两种看法:一种是真实经济,由公司账面现金水平反映;另一种是被夸大的虚拟观点,由市场上当前的股票价值反映。在这个例子中,虚拟价值被观察到低于真实价值。
In an article published by the Newsweek, October 11, 2008, Daniel Gross writes100, “Back in 2002, Apple’s stock was trading far below the level of cash on its books, ascribing a value of zero to its brands and products, compared with several billion at the height of the boom.” Note how the statement refers to the existence of two views of the economy: a real economy which is reflected by the level of cache on corporate books and an inflated, exaggerated view which is reflected in the current stock values of the market; in this case the virtual value was observed to be below the real value.
虚拟经济(VE)与当今所见的金融资本主义体系的失败密切相关。虚拟经济使经济看起来远大于其实际规模。与虚拟内存计算机的情形相似,虚拟经济建立在这样一个假设之上:真实的货币不会被动用,因此可以按假定的更大(虚拟)价值来处理货币。
Virtual economy (VE) is strongly related to the failure of the financial capitalist system as being witnessed today. VE allows the economy to appear much larger than its real size. As in the case of virtual memory computers, virtual economy is based on the assumption that the real money will not be tapped into, and therefore, it is possible to deal with an assumed larger (virtual) value for the money.
回想一下,资本主义的一项主要原则与产品价值的定义有关。资本主义之下的产品价值,是某一产品相对于其他事物的相对效益,或其相对交换价值的衡量;若交换价值以货币计,则该价值称为价格。因此,资本主义的基础允许产品存在一种虚拟的相对价值,而非人们可以始终参照的真实价值。如此一来,在市场经济中,某一市场板块(例如石油)的价值便有可能在短时间内在两个极端之间波动。资本主义对价值的定义允许这种波动依当前情况而发生。经济、政治和社会条件会成为触发因素,使各类产品和市场板块的价值波动,并造成动荡,甚至可能导致全面崩溃。
Recall that one of the main principles of capitalism is related to the definition of value of products. Product value under capitalism is a measure of the relative benefit of a given product or its relative exchange value compared to the benefit of other things; in case the exchange value is relative to money, the value is known as the price. Hence, the foundation of capitalism allows the existence of a virtual relative value for products instead of a real value which people can always refer to. As such, in the market economy, it is possible for the value of a given segment of the market, such as oil, to fluctuate between two extremes in a short period of time. The definition of value under capitalism allows for this fluctuation to occur depending on the current conditions. Economic, political, and social conditions would act as a trigger which causes the values of various products and market segments to fluctuate and create turbulence which potentially can cause a total collapse.
虚拟经济组织(类似于虚拟内存组织)为经济提供了两种视角。第一种是某一经济体中商品和服务的真实价值,它与真实的经济增长和生产相对应。第二种视角代表市场的虚拟、想象价值。市场的虚拟价值通常以交换价值衡量,即货币价值或价格。
Virtual economy organization (similar to virtual memory organization) provides two views of the economy. The first is the real value of commodities and services in a given economy which corresponds to the real economic growth and production. The second view of the economy represents the virtual imaginary value of the market. The virtual values of the market are typically measured by the exchange value which is the monetary value or the price.
股票市场与虚拟经济
Stock Markets and the Virtual Economy
20世纪初的股票市场活动在经济中催生了一种新现象:与股票价值相关的财富增长速度远远快于与实体经济相关的财富。1929年10月纽约股市崩盘时,经济学家将这次崩盘归因于股票膨胀后的价值与经济中实际资产价值之间的巨大差距。尽管经济学家对1929至1932年股市崩盘的成因看法不一,但他们都承认,公用事业股票的价格被推得过高。
The stock market activities at the start of the twentieth century created a new phenomenon in the economy, where the wealth associated with stock values grew at much higher rate than the wealth associated with the real economy. When the stock market collapsed in New York in October 1929, the economists attributed the crash to the great difference between the inflated values of stocks and the values of the real assets of the economy. Although economists may not agree on the cause of the 1929-1932 stock market crash, they all admit that the utility stocks prices drove up too high.
2929年11月2日,《经济学人》杂志坚持认为股票价格过高,并写道:“有理由希望,美国股票价值这个被夸大的泡沫的破裂,将对世界有益。”换言之,股票价值被严重高估。进一步说明这一问题,人们发现,1925年至1929年间,金融市场的股票价值上涨了120%,而同期的经济增长却未超过17%(平均每年3.5%)。1932年,市场最终崩盘,损失了九成以上的价值。市场回归其真实价值,而这一真实价值明显远低于股市所显示的水平(101,134)。
The Economist magazine insisted on November 2, 1929, that the stock prices were too high and wrote134, “There is warrant for hoping that the deflation of the exaggerated balloon of American stock values will be for the good of the world.” In other words, the stock values were highly inflated. To elaborate further on this issue, it was found that the stock values in the financial market increased during the period between 1925 and 1929 by 120%, while the economic growth for the same period has not exceeded 17% (an average of 3.5% per year). In 1932, when the market finally collapsed, it lost over 90% of its value. The market returned to its real value which was obviously much lower than what the stock market indicated (101, 134).
赫伯特·胡佛总统也认同,股票市场的价格极其高昂,这不过是联邦储备委员会的失误所造成的投机泡沫。胡佛解释说:“这些阴云之一是一股美国式的乐观浪潮,它源于十年间持续的进步,而联邦储备委员会将其变成了股票交易所里的密西西比泡沫”102。因此,普遍的看法是股票价格过高。
President Herbert Hoover concurred that the prices of the stock market were extraordinarily high and that they were nothing but a speculative bubble caused by the mistakes of the Federal Reserve Board. Hoover explained, “One of these clouds was an American wave of optimism, born of continued progress over the decade, which the Federal Reserve Board transformed into the stock-exchange Mississippi Bubble”102. Thus, the common viewpoint was that stock prices were too high.
一个与1929年大崩盘和当前危机相似的地方,是经济分析人士和政界人士急于错误地宣布危机已经结束。二十世纪上半叶的主要经济学家,如欧文·费雪和凯恩斯,在1929年大崩盘仅六个月后就宣布危机已经结束。两人随后在股市再次暴跌中都损失了大部分财富。
One similarity between the crash of the 1929 and the current crisis is the rush of economic analysts and politicians to falsely declare the end of the crisis. Leading economists of the first half of the twentieth century such as Irving Fisher and Maynard Keynes declared the end of the 1929 crisis only six months after the crash. Both managed to lose a large portion of their wealth in the subsequent stock market crash.

举个例子,假设某家公司的真实价值仅相当于其虚拟总价值的10%;这在虚拟经济世界中并不罕见。实际上,能够兑换成真实货币的金额,最多只能是公司股票价值所代表的虚拟资本总额的10%;其余部分则等于零。当公司股东(或股票持有人)注意到某位大型投资者开始出售其持有的资产(以便将其兑换成真实货币)时,股东之间便会蔓延恐慌;他们争相抛售手中的股份,希望在股票贬值之前套现一些真实货币。随后便发生崩盘,公司的虚拟价值被拉回到更为实际的基本价值。
As an example, assume that the real value of some company is equivalent to 10% of its total virtual value; this is not uncommon in the realm of virtual economy world. Practically, the amount that can be turned into real money can be no more than 10% of the total virtual capital given by the stock value of the company; the rest is equal to none. When the owners of the company shares (or stockholders) notice that a major investor begins to sell his possessions (to convert them to real money), a panic among shareholders begin to propagate; they rush to sell their possessions hoping to cache in some real money before their stocks lose value. Then a collapse takes place and brings down the virtual value of the company to its more realistic basic value.
让我们通过简单的分析和计算来更加细致地讲解这个例子(图23),以免读者感到困惑。假设一家公司共有一千股股票,每股价值100美元。那么该公司的虚拟股票市值为100,000美元。为便于论证,假设该公司基于其资产和生产能力的真实价值为10,000美元。换句话说,公司的真实价值只占其虚拟市值的10%。 现在假设一位大额投资者以每股100美元的价格卖出五十股,套现5,000美元。如果其余股东也开始抛售股票,希望从公司拿回真金白银,那么他们最多只能拿到5,000美元,即公司真实价值中剩余的部分。这相当于5,000÷950,约等于每股5.25美元。 接着,如果又有一人比其他人行动更快,以比如50美元的价格卖出五十股,套现2,500美元,那么其余人就只能在最多2,500美元之内分配剩下的九百股;如果所有股份一次性全部卖出,每股仅值2.75美元。 再假设又有两百股以每股10美元的价格成交,共计2,000美元。公司剩余的价值为500美元,需要分摊到七百股上。此时该公司的股票价值将跌至每股0.71美元。最终,当全部10,000美元都被提取完毕时,股价将归零,剩下的股票将完全失去价值。
Let’s work out the example more thoroughly using simple analysis and calculation so as not to confuse the readers (figure 23). Assume that there are one thousand shares in a company. Also, assume that each share is worth $100. So the virtual stock value of the company is $100,000. For the sake of argument, assume that the real value of the company based on its assets and production is $10,000. In other words, the real value of the company is 10% of its virtual value. Now assume that a major investor sells fifty stock shares at $100 and caches $5,000. If the rest of the shareholders start selling their shares hoping to get real money from the company, they will be able to get no more than $5,000 at best, which is the remaining portion of the real value of the company. This translates to 5,000/950, which is approximately $5.25 per share. Now if one more person was able to act faster than the rest and sell fifty shares at say $50 and caches $2,500, then the rest of the crowd will have to share the remaining nine hundred shares for no more than $2500; that is $2.75 a share if all shares are sold at once. Say that two hundred more stocks were traded at $10 a share which amounts to $2,000. What remains of the company value is $500 distributed over seven hundred shares. The stock value of this company will be dropped down to $0.71. Eventually when all $10,000 are gone, the share will go to zero. The remaining stocks will lose their value completely.
银行、高利贷与虚拟经济
Banks, Usury, and the Virtual Economy
高利贷是造成虚拟财富的第二大原因,它使经济的规模看起来远大于其实际价值。《韦氏词典》(Merriam-Webster)将高利贷(usury)定义为“为使用资金而收取利息的放贷行为”;该词源自中世纪拉丁语 usuria,意为利息。后来,高利贷的含义有所改变,指超过某一预定利率的利息。这一改变的目的,是为收取资金利息提供合法性。在伊斯兰文化与宗教中,高利贷一词对应的是 riba(里巴)。里巴源自“增长”一词。用于高利贷的概念时,它指的是以他人的钱财为代价而使自己的钱财增长。这一定义依据的是以下《古兰经》经文:
Usury is the second major cause for the creation of virtual wealth which causes the economy to appear much larger in size than its real value. Usury is defined in Merriam-Webster dictionary as “the lending of money with an interest charge for its use”; this comes from the Medieval Latin usuria, which means interest. A modification was made to the meaning of usury to indicate the interest rate charged above a predetermined rate. This modification was made in order to legitimize the charging of interest on money. In the Islamic culture and religion, the word usury is mapped to the word riba. Riba comes from the word increase. When applied to the concept of usury, it means the increase of money at the expense of the money of other people. This definition is based on the Quranic verse:
那些你们为了使别人的财产增多而放出的利息,在真主看来并不能增多。(古兰经 30:39)
That [usury-riba] which you lay out for increase through the money of other people will have no increase with Allah. (Quran 30:39)
高利贷,或者人们最常说的利率,是资本主义金融政策的基石。美联储用它来调节市场和经济的波动。在经济衰退期间,美联储降低利率(即高利贷的数值),以鼓励借贷并增加对商品和服务的需求。相反,在经济过度增长时,它会提高高利贷的数值,以抑制通货膨胀。这里要说明的是,在资本主义政治经济中,高利贷是用来控制经济起伏的最重要工具之一。或许资本主义经济最独特的特征,就是广泛使用向个人、公司、机构乃至政府自身提供贷款的金融机构。
Usury, or the interest rate as most frequently referred to, is a cornerstone of the financial policies under capitalism. It is used by the Federal Reserve to adjust market and economy fluctuations. During a recession, the Federal Reserve Bank reduces the interest rate (usury value) in order to encourage borrowing and increase the demands on goods and services. Conversely, it increases the value of usury to curb inflation during excessive economic growth. The point here is to understand that usury in the capitalist political economy is one of the most important tools used for the control of the ups and downs of the economy. Perhaps the single most unique characteristic of capitalist economy is the widespread use of financial institutions that offer loans to individuals, companies, institutions, and even governments themselves.
在本节中,我们关注的是利息(riba,高利贷)在虚拟财富创造中所起的作用。关于高利贷的更多内容,将在本书第二部分讨论伊斯兰经济制度时进一步阐述。伊斯兰经济制度是不含高利贷的,与之相对,资本主义则建立在高利贷之上。
In this section, we are interested in the role of riba-usury in the creation of virtual wealth. More on the subject of usury will be addressed in the second part of this book when we discuss the Islamic economic system, which is usury free in contrast with capitalism which is based on usury.

投资者和客户所获得的资金数量与速率,必然少于流向银行的资金数量与速率。随着时间推移,银行所积累的财富,会比市场通过银行贷款或商品和服务的生产所聚集的财富总额更多。银行所积累的财富与市场所维持的财富之间的差距,为经济的两种观点——实体的与虚拟的——提供了另一个理由。为进一步说明这一现象,请考虑以下两个案例。
The amount and rate of money which flows in the direction of investors and customers will certainly be less than the amount and rate of money which flows in the direction of the banks. Over time, the banks accumulate more wealth than the total wealth collected by the market either through loans from the banks or through production of goods and services. The difference between the wealth accumulated by the banks and the wealth sustained by the market provides another reason for the dual views of the economy: the real and the virtual. To further illustrate this phenomenon, consider the following two cases.
考虑这样一个贷款案例:银行向一位投资者提供一笔贷款。假设银行发放了1亿美元的贷款,为期一年,利率为5%的高利(riba)。再假设,此期间的通货膨胀率为2%;经通胀调整后,利率的实际价值变为3%。进一步假设,借款的投资者利用所借资金生产商品和服务,并在贷款期末获得2%的利润。那么,最终需要偿还银行的总金额为1.03亿美元,而因贷款、投资和利润而实际可得的资金为1.02亿美元。这意味着,银行账户中有100万美元并不对应任何实际的价值。这笔盈余就是高利(riba);它代表了货币的纯粹增长,而这种增长并不对应经济中的任何增长。经济增长了200万美元;货币增长了300万美元。在货币增长中,只有200万美元对应着真实财富的增长。这正是《古兰经》所指的、以他人的钱财为代价的货币增长:"你们为了使他人的财产增加而施行的高利(riba),在真主那里是不会增加的。"(《古兰经》30:39)
Consider the loan case, where the bank provides a loan for an investor. Let’s assume that the bank provided a loan of $100 million with 5% usury for one year. Let’s assume also that the inflation during this period was 2%; the actual value of the interest rate becomes 3% after inflation adjustment. Assume further that the investor who borrowed the money was able to use the borrowed money to produce goods and services and generate 2% profit at the end of the loan period. Now the total amount of money to be paid back to the bank is $103 million, while the real available money due to the loan, investment, and profit is $102 million. This means that there is $1million in the bank account which does not correspond to any real value on the ground. This surplus is the usury; it represents the pure growth of money which does not correspond to any growth in the economy. The economy grew by $2 million; the money grew by $3 million. Only $2 million of the money growth corresponds to economic real wealth growth. This is what the Quran refers to as money growth at the expense of other people’s money: “That [usury-riba] which you lay out for increase through the money of other people will have no increase with Allah” (Quran 30:39).
需要指出的是,世界上最大的借款方是政府,它们借钱是为了支付自身运作的开销,而不是用于有利可图的生产。因此,累积的纯粹高利贷数额将远高于上述例子中所示的(1%)比率。正因如此,在很短的时间内,高利贷资金便会增长到数千亿美元,并远远超过实体经济的规模。 值得了解的是,在过去三十年里,美国的实际经济增长率不超过3.5%,而实际利率(扣除通货膨胀后)每年超过8%。平均而言,财富增长中有4.5%出现在虚拟层面,这与实际经济增长并不相符。这意味着,三十年间的虚拟资金达到了实际经济价值的(135%)。因此,如果美国经济的实际价值为5万亿美元,那么与高利贷相关的超额财富就是6.75万亿美元。虚拟财富总额将显示为11.75万亿美元,而不是5万亿美元。
Note that the biggest borrowers in the world are governments which borrow money to pay for their operation and not for profitable production. Consequently, the accumulated pure usury will be much higher than the ratio of (1%) as indicated by the above example. That is why, in a short period of time, usury money grows to several hundreds of billions of dollars and becomes much greater than the size of the real economy. It is worthwhile to know that the real economic growth rate in United States was no more than 3.5% during the last thirty years, while the actual interest rate (after inflation adjustment) was more than 8% per year. On the average, 4.5% of the wealth increase was on the virtual side, which did not correspond to the real economic growth. This means that the virtual money over thirty years was (135%) of the actual value of the economy. So if the real value of the US economy was $5 trillion, then the usury-related excess wealth was $6.75 trillion. The total virtual wealth will appear to be $11.75 trillion instead of $5 trillion.

图25显示了美联储如何向其自身账户注入资金,却不顾实际经济增长状况。数据表明,1994年至2008年间,货币储备增长了四倍多;雷曼兄弟银行倒闭后不到四个月,流通现金与储备总额翻了一番。2008年9月10日,货币储备从8500亿美元升至2008年12月31日的17020亿美元。不言而喻,在这一期间(112天内),经济不可能增长200%。
Figure 25 shows how the Federal Reserve Bank pumps money into its own account without consideration to the economic growth on the ground107. The data shows how the money reserves multiplied more than four times between 1994 and 2008; the total cache currency and reserves doubled in less than four months after the collapse of the Lehman Brothers Bank. The currency reserves rose from $850 billion on September 10, 2008, to $1,702 billion on December 31, 2008. It is needless to say that during this period (112 days), the economy could not have grown 200%.
美联储的做法助长了虚拟财富的膨胀,而不是致力于遏制它。美联储非但没有以抑制实体经济增长为代价来控制虚拟财富的增长,反而加剧了这一现象。
The practice of the Federal Reserve contributes to the explosion of virtual wealth instead of working to control it. Instead of containing the phenomenon of virtual wealth growth at the expense of real economy growth, the Fed aggravates it.
全世界各国政府和国家所背负的生息债务之巨令人震惊。截至2008年底,六十个国家的债务总额超过65万亿美元。这些债务每年所支付的利息超过3万亿美元;仅这笔利息,就足以将世界从其所陷入的深度衰退中拯救出来。
Worldwide, the interest baring debt of states and governments is shocking. The total amount of debts for sixty countries exceeded $65 trillion at the end of 2008112. The interest paid on this debt exceeds $3 trillion a year; this interest alone is more than the amount of money required to pull the world out of the deep recession it plunged in.
在世界层面,国际货币基金组织(IMF)和世界银行(WB)所扮演的角色,与美国联邦储备系统所扮演的角色相似。国际货币基金组织和世界银行几乎向世界上每一个国家发放有息贷款;它们对许多贷款接受国附加的条件,既影响各国的实际经济增长,也影响其外汇储备和货币价值。截至2008年底,全球最贫穷的二十五个国家欠国际货币基金组织的外债达到1293亿美元。
At the world level, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) practice similar role to the one played by the Federal Reserve in the United States. The IMF and the WB grant loans with interest to almost every country in the world; the IMF and WB impose on many of the recipients of their loans conditions which impact the real economic growth of each country as well as the currency reserves and values. The external debt to IMF of twenty-five poorest countries reached $129.3 billion at the end of 2008.
国际货币基金组织使各国经济陷入困境的故事在阿根廷、牙买加、拉脱维亚、乌克兰、匈牙利、埃塞俄比亚等许多国家一再上演。经济与政策研究中心(CEPR)发表的一篇文章详细阐述了国际货币基金组织的政策对乌克兰、拉脱维亚和匈牙利经济衰退的影响。这些国家都转向国际货币基金组织寻求帮助,以应对经济下滑。在这三个国家中,经济政策都存在失误,增加了它们对外部冲击的脆弱性。政府对经济下滑的应对措施,加上国际货币基金组织提出的援助条件,带来了顺周期政策的危害。例如,在匈牙利,大量外国借贷涌入,致使该国在2006年和2007年分别出现了相当于国内生产总值7.5%和6.4%的大额经常账户赤字。
The stories of IMF wrecking nations’ economies are repeated in Argentina, Jamaica, Latvia, Ukraine, Hungary, Ethiopia, and many more. In an article published by the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR)113, the impact of IMF policies on the economic downturn of Ukraine, Latvia, and Hungary is detailed. These countries turned to IMF to help them cope with economic downturn. In all three countries, there were mistakes in economic policy that increased their vulnerability to external shocks. The governments’ responses to the downturn, along with IMF conditions for assistance, have caused harm with procyclical policies. In Hungary, for example, a surge of foreign borrowing caused the country to run large account deficits in 2006 and 2007 (7.5 and 6.4% of GDP, respectively).
黄金/白银本位与虚拟经济
Gold/Silver Standard and the Virtual Economy
金本位制或银本位制是指一国货币以黄金和/或白银等贵金属作为发行保证的货币制度。当美元等货币以黄金或白银为后盾时,一个国家的金融规模几乎不可能增长到如此之高的程度,以至于不致耗尽其黄金或白银储备。如果主要货币(例如美元)仍与金本位挂钩,今天在资本主义世界中蓬勃发展的虚拟经济就不可能成为现实。
Gold/silver standard refers to the monetary system where the currency of a nation is backed by a precious metal such as the gold and/or silver. When the currency such as the dollar is backed by gold or silver, it would be almost impossible to grow the finances of the country to such high limits where the country risks the depletion of its gold or silver reserves. The virtual economy, which thrives in the world of capitalism today, could not have become a reality, if main currency (e.g. US dollar) remained linked to the gold standard.
直到第一次世界大战之前,黄金一直是世界上所有主要贸易国家的货币本位。各国都将其货币按照固定不变的比率与黄金挂钩。在金本位制度下,国际货币体系经历了前所未有的稳定与繁荣时期。从本质上讲,金本位制提供了货币纪律。一个国家可以发行的货币数量受到其黄金储备量的限制,因为各国可能面临将货币兑换为黄金的要求。在古典金本位制下,不同国家货币之间的汇率保持相当稳定。
Until World War I, gold ruled as the monetary standard of all the major trading countries in the world. Each country pegged its currency to gold at a constant and unchanging rate. Under the gold standard, the international monetary systems enjoyed a period of unprecedented stability and prosperity. In essence, the gold standard provided monetary discipline. The amount of currency a country could print was limited by the amount of gold in their reserves, because countries could have faced the requirement to convert their money to gold. Exchange rates between currencies of different nations remain fairly constant in the classical gold system.
金本位时代在第一次世界大战中被骤然打断。交战各国为了支付战争的极高开支,决定在没有黄金作为支撑的情况下印制货币。大量纸币被投入市场,而这些货币缺乏坚实的储备支持,从而引发了高通货膨胀。这种局面在整个战争期间持续,并延续到战后。 根据赔偿计划,德国必须偿还1320亿马克,并且被要求以黄金作为这一数额的担保。显然,德国无法满足这一要求;德国不能将其黄金用于支付战争罪行的赔偿。欧洲盟国向美国借了太多钱,而美国要求偿还这些贷款。德国无法履行战后赔偿计划,以及盟国未能履行对美国的贷款义务,构成了第二次世界大战的借口。
The gold standard era was abruptly interrupted in World War I. Warring countries decided to print money without backing it up with gold in order to finance the extremely high costs of the war. An enormous amount of cache was poured into the markets without a solid backup for the money, giving rise to high inflation. This situation continued throughout the war and beyond. Germany had to repay under a reparations plan 132 billion marks and was required to back this amount by gold. Evidently, this requirement could not have been met by Germany; Germany could not spend its gold to pay for war crimes. The Europe allies have borrowed too much money from the United States, which demanded its loans be paid. The inability of Germany to comply with the postwar reparations plan and the failure of the allied countries to fulfill their loan obligations to the United States constituted a pretext for the Second World War.
20世纪20年代中期,金本位制得到了部分恢复。然而,各国货币的汇率却变得混乱不堪,反映出美国货币实力与欧洲各国货币疲软之间的失衡。这些欧洲国家既有战胜国(英国和法国),也有战败国(德国和意大利)。

美国金融政策制定者面前的选择在两种经济形式之间:一种是以黄金为本位货币支撑的真实经济,增长缓慢却稳健;另一种是纯纸币(后来是数字货币)构成的虚拟经济,这些货币没有任何贵金属(黄金或白银)作为支撑。虚拟经济的选择可以带来几乎无限的流动性,带来空前的财富增长,带来对苏联社会主义阵营的无与伦比的优势,并能够保全美国的黄金储备。这一选择虽然极具吸引力,却成为了资本主义经济坟墓上的第一块砖。
The choice was in the hands of US financial policy makers between two forms of economy. A real economy backed by gold-based currencies, which grows slowly but surely. Or a virtual economy characterized by pure-paper (and later digital) currencies without any backup from any precious metal, gold or silver. The virtual economy option allows for a virtually large liquidity, allows for an unprecedented wealth growth, allows unparalleled superiority over the Soviet Socialists camp, and allows the preservation of the US gold reserves. As attractive as this option could be, it became the first brick in the grave of the capitalist economy.
冷战以及与苏联社会主义之间的激烈斗争,为这一选择的蔓延提供了适宜的环境,也为决策者谨慎评估此类选择的危险性提供了屏障。负责提供流动性的金融机构,尤其是美国联邦储备体系,其贪婪推动了这一选择,使其以极大的热情和急切之势向前推进。布雷顿森林体系的废除由此铺平了道路。
The cold war and the fierce struggle with the Soviet socialism provided the suitable environment for this option to flourish and provided the shield which prevented policy makers from carefully evaluating the dangers of such option. The greed of the financial institutions which were responsible for providing the liquidity, in particular the US Federal Reserve Consortium pushed this option forward with great avidity and eagerness. The path was thus paved for the revocation of Bretton Woods Act.
美元与黄金可兑换性危机从欧洲各国央行持有的美元数额中即可看出。到1966年,欧洲各国央行持有的美元超过140亿美元。而美国的黄金储备仅为132亿美元,其中100亿美元需用于满足美国国内市场的需求。如果各国政府和外国央行一次性尝试兑换其持有量的四分之一,美国将无法履行其义务。布雷顿森林体系规定的每盎司35美元的相对低廉的金价,吸引了投机者、黄金商人和富裕实体购买并囤积黄金,从而加快了世界市场上黄金的消耗速度。
The dollar-gold convertibility crisis was evident by the amount of dollars held in the central banks of Europe. By 1966, Europe held in its central banks more than $14 billion. The United States had only $13.2 billion in gold reserves, of which $10 billion were needed to support US internal market needs. If governments and foreign central banks tried to convert even a quarter of their holdings at one time, the United States would not be able to honor its obligations. The relatively low price of gold at $35 an ounce as determined by Bretton Woods tempted speculators, gold merchants, and rich entities to purchase and hoard gold, thus increasing the rate of gold depletion in the world markets.
1971年,欧洲各国中央银行开始用黄金兑付其持有的大量美元。美国的黄金储备面临流失殆尽的风险。1971年8月15日,美国宣布不再以其储备黄金兑付美元,此举震惊了世界。实际上,美国单方面中止了布雷顿森林协定。美元与黄金的联系就此切断。持续了四分之一世纪的经济稳定局面终于瓦解,一个金融无限增长的新时代随之开启。到1973年,世界上其他国家也相继放弃了金本位制。
In 1971, the central banks in Europe began to redeem gold for their large stockpile of dollars. The US gold supplies were at the risk of vanishing. On August 15, 1971, the United States stunned the world by declaring that it would no longer redeem dollars for gold from its reserves. Essentially, the United States unilaterally aborted Bretton Woods Agreement. The dollar’s link to gold was severed. A quarter century of economic stability had finally collapsed, and a new era of unbounded financial growth began. By 1973, other countries in the world abandoned the gold standard.

历史上第一次,黄金正式成为一种商品,其价格受市场规律和制度法规的支配。图26显示了黄金价格的上涨及其依据伦敦现货黄金价格的波动情况117。直到1972年美国放弃金本位制之前,黄金价格几乎保持稳定。2008年金融危机之后,黄金价格超过了每盎司1,200美元。
For the first time in history, the gold officially became just a commodity, whose price is subject to market rules and regulations. Figure 26 shows the rise of gold prices and their fluctuation based on the London Spot Gold Prices117. The gold prices remained almost stable until 1972 when the United States relinquished the gold standard. After the financial crisis in 2008, the price of gold exceeded $1,200 per ounce.
自布雷顿森林体系于1971年瓦解、金本位制终结以来,美元已成为事实上的国际储备货币。1970年之前的二十年间,国际美元储备仅增长约55%,年均增速为2.7%。1971年至2001年间,随着美元取代黄金本位,国际储备增长超过2,000%,年均增速超过66%[118]。图27显示了1972年以来世界财富的增长情况。这样的增长在金本位制下本是不可能实现的。美国背离布雷顿森林协定、切断美元与黄金的联系之后,美元便摆脱了黄金的束缚,释放出其虚拟增长的潜力。
Since the breakdown of Bretton Woods in 1971 and the end of the gold standard, the dollar has become the default international reserve currency. The twenty years prior to 1970, international dollar reserves increased only about 55%, at a rate of 2.7% a year. Between 1971 and 2001, with the adoption of the dollar instead of gold standard, reserves have increased over 2,000%, at a rate of more than 66% a year118. Figure 27 shows the growth of the world wealth since 1972. Such growth could not have been possible under the gold standard. But when United States turned against Bretton Woods Agreement and broke the link between the dollar and the gold, it freed the dollar from the rein of the gold and unleashed its potential for virtual growth.
在布雷顿森林协定瓦解之后,黄金已不能再对以美元为基础的经济增长速度设定界限;然而,美元仍系着另一根"绳索",使其不至于如图27所示那样以指数级速度飙升。这根绳索便是大萧条(1929年)之后施加于金融机构的一套法规和限制。20世纪30年代,政治领袖出台了这些限制,以防止未来再次发生经济萧条。实质上,这些限制约束了金融机构的增长能力,使其无法通过不断发放贷款、从贷款中获取越来越多的利息来壮大财富。法规要求借款人在借款购房时必须先支付相当可观的首付款,这使得需要计息的贷款部分相对更小。
After the death of Bretton Woods Agreement, the gold could no longer set boundaries to the growth rate of the dollar based economy; yet there was another string attached to the dollar, which kept it from skyrocketing at exponential rates as noted in figure 27. The string was a set of regulations and restrictions which were placed against financial institutions after the great 1929 Depression. Restrictions were introduced in the 1930s by political leaders to prevent another depression in the future. In essence, the restrictions limited the ability of the financial institutions to grow their wealth by giving more and more loans and generating more and more interest on the loans. Borrowers were required by the regulations to put a significant amount of money down when they borrowed to finance a house purchase. That left the interest-bearing portion of the loan relatively smaller.
1982年,里根政府认定政府监管条例阻碍了经济发展。里根于1982年签署《加恩-圣日耳曼存款机构法》(Garn-St. Germain Depository Institutions Act)时,政府取消了这些条例并解除了限制(140,141)。结果,美国银行在几乎没有政府限制、也缺乏审慎财政约束的情况下,掀起了一股信贷和贷款热潮。在里根放松管制之前,美国家庭的平均债务占比为60%。到2007年,这一数字翻了一番,达到119%119。这是通过放宽借贷标准实现的。